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After more than two years of devastating civil war, Sudan is witnessing a dramatic shift in the conflict’s trajectory. Since the eruption of hostilities in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the violence has shattered communities, displaced millions, and created one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent African history.
The SAF’s recapture of Khartoum in March 2025 marked a significant turning point in the conflict, changing not only the battlefield dynamics but also the political and humanitarian outlook of the war.
The Warring Factions and the Struggle for Control
The war pits the SAF aligned with Sudan’s transitional government against the RSF, a powerful paramilitary group led by former army general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti.” The RSF initially gained ground with a swift advance on the capital, Khartoum, laying siege to key military installations.
However, the tide began to turn in September 2024.
“We’ve really seen some shifting dynamics in Sudan,” said Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project. “While the RSF had the upper hand early on, especially in Khartoum, things began to change late last year as the SAF ramped up its counteroffensive.”
Civilians Trapped in the Crossfire
The human toll of the conflict has been catastrophic. ACLED data reveals that at least 1,300 civilians have been killed every quarter since the war began. The United Nations estimates that more than 13 million people have been displaced across Sudan and neighboring countries.
Though some civilians have returned to relatively calmer areas like Khartoum following its recapture, the rest of the country remains embroiled in violence.
A recent UN fact-finding mission documented an “increased use of heavy weaponry in populated areas and a sharp rise in sexual and gender-based violence.” The report also noted that humanitarian relief is being “weaponized,” with hospitals and aid workers increasingly targeted.
Human Rights Watch has also chronicled widespread atrocities, particularly at the hands of the RSF, including massacres and deliberate attacks on civilian populations. The SAF and other armed factions have also been implicated in bombing civilian zones, including areas with no visible combatants.
Shifting Tactics: From Drones to Ground Battles
The war’s nature continues to evolve. While the RSF has increasingly turned to drone strikes and aerial assaults, the SAF has intensified its reliance on ground operations to retake strategic territories.
“Right now, the most likely scenario is continued conflict, but with the violence moving into new areas,” Serwat explained. “As the SAF regained control in places like Khartoum, we’ve seen violence drop there. But new offensives are emerging, especially westward into North Kordofan, South Kordofan, and West Kordofan.”
One of the most volatile areas remains Darfur, the RSF’s western stronghold, where ethnic tensions and historical grievances threaten to further inflame the conflict.
A Regional Powder Keg
The conflict’s implications extend far beyond Sudan’s borders. As the civil war drags on, regional stability hangs in the balance. Neighboring countries such as South Sudan, Chad, and the Central African Republic are already grappling with their own fragile security environments.
“The war definitely isn’t just a national crisis, but a growing regional security issue,” Serwat warned. “There’s a real danger that this war could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and Sahel regions if it continues unchecked.”
Fragile Hope Amid Ongoing Conflict
Despite international calls for ceasefire and negotiations, both sides appear entrenched in a war of attrition. Mediation efforts have faltered, and humanitarian corridors remain blocked in many areas.
Still, the SAF’s recent territorial gains and shifting battle lines offer a potential, though tenuous opening for renewed dialogue.
As Sudan braces for what may be a prolonged and increasingly complex phase of the war, the international community faces mounting pressure to act not just to stem the bloodshed but to prevent a wider regional catastrophe.
“Sudan’s war is a brutal reminder of how quickly a nation can unravel,” said Serwat. “And unless the world pays attention, the consequences will ripple far beyond its borders.”
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