South Sudan Risks War Again as Violence Spirals and Civilians Bear the Brunt
South Sudan is facing a severe risk of slipping back into full-scale war, with renewed clashes between government forces and opposition groups displacing hundreds of thousands and destabilising already fragile peace efforts. Recent escalations in Jonglei State and beyond have reignited fears of widespread conflict, undermining the hard-won peace achieved since the 2018 agreement.
The war threat isn’t abstract, it’s a palpable reality for millions who have already been forced from their homes, with humanitarian agencies sounding urgent alarms over rising death tolls, hunger, and violence against non-combatants.
Renewed Clashes Trigger Deep Fears of Full-Scale War
Since late 2025, clashes in Jonglei have intensified between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), reviving bitter tensions that once fuelled the nation’s devastating civil war.
Opposition forces have seized key territory in Jonglei, prompting heavy military operations aimed at retaking ground. Civilians and humanitarian workers have been ordered to evacuate conflict zones, stalling aid delivery and raising fears that the war could spread across other regions.
The United Nations has warned that this pattern “signals a return to war” a stark assessment given that South Sudan’s previous conflict from 2013 to 2018 claimed an estimated 400,000 lives and displaced millions.
Civilians Targeted, International Outcry Grows
The human cost of the escalating violence is stark. Hundreds of thousands have been displaced, many fleeing across Jonglei’s flooded wetlands with little access to food, medicine, or shelter. international agencies report that more than 450,000 children face acute malnutrition, while aid organisations struggle to reach those trapped by insecurity.
A recent tragic incident in Pankor village, Ayod County, where civilians were lured under false pretences of aid and killed by armed groups, drew unprecedented condemnation from the European Union and nine countries, which demanded an immediate halt to violence.
These developments have intensified global concern about the breakdown of the 2018 peace deal, with senior diplomats and humanitarians urging both sides to de-escalate and return to negotiation.
Humanitarian Crisis Worsens Amid Conflict
Even before the latest clashes, South Sudan was grappling with multilayered crises. According to the World Food Programme, over 7.5 million people, roughly half the population are facing crisis or worse levels of hunger, and more than 2.1 million children under five are acutely malnourished.
Conflict-related displacement compounds these challenges, with hundreds of thousands uprooted in recent months alone. Separately, flooding and outbreaks of diseases such as cholera have added to the mounting humanitarian pressures.
Aid delivery itself has been hampered by insecurity, looting, and restrictions on movement, leaving many communities dangerously cut off from lifesaving support.
Political Faultlines and What’s at Stake
Experts point to underlying political fracture lines that threaten South Sudan’s unity. The arrest and prosecution of key opposition leaders have been deeply polarising, undermining trust in the power-sharing framework established under the Revitalised Peace Agreement.
International bodies like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union have repeatedly warned that unilateral political moves and violations of the peace deal “could lead to a collapse of the transitional process”.
Economists also caution that prolonged instability could imperil South Sudan’s fragile economy. Oil revenues, central to the country’s budget risk disruption if fighting spreads to key production zones, potentially exacerbating inflation, unemployment and foreign investment flight.
Public Reaction and Global Response
The resurgence of conflict has sparked outrage among civil society groups and diaspora communities. Pro-peace activists have held vigils and online campaigns urging an end to violence, while human rights organisations document abuses and call for accountability.
On the diplomatic front, Western governments and regional actors are increasing pressure on both sides. Joint statements by the EU and multiple embassies underscore growing international consensus for renewed dialogue and humanitarian access.
Can Renewed Peace Be Forged?
Despite bleak indicators, there are still avenues for peace. Regional mediators and UN envoys continue shuttle diplomatic engagements, aiming to revive talks and solidify ceasefire mechanisms.
For now, however, South Sudan risks war at one of its most critical junctures, with the outcome hinging on whether political rivals choose confrontation or compromise. What happens next could determine not only the country’s stability but the fate of millions who have already borne the brunt of relentless conflict.
Conclusion: Dire Warning as South Sudan Risks War
South Sudan risks war as political fractures, intensifying clashes, and worsening humanitarian crises pull the young nation toward renewed violence. The international community’s calls for peace and accountability must translate into action before the worst-case scenario becomes reality
